1.青岛大学 经济学院,山东 青岛 266061
2.济南大学 商学院,山东 济南 250002
3.上海交易所 资本市场研究所,上海 200120
孙国茂,经济学博士,青岛大学经济学院教授,山东工商学院特聘教授、金融服务转型升级协同创新中心首席专家,研究方向为公司金融、资本市场与制度经济学;
张辉,济南大学商学院硕士生,研究方向为金融学;
张运才,经济学博士,复旦大学博士后,上海交易所资本市场研究所研究员,研究方向为资本市场。
纸质出版日期:2020-11-15,
扫 描 看 全 文
孙国茂, 张辉, 张运才. 宏观审慎监管与证券市场系统性风险测度研究[J]. 济南大学学报(社会科学版), 2020,30(6):107-124.
Guomao SUN, Hui ZHANG, Yuncai ZHANG. Macro-prudential Supervision and Systemic Risk Measurement in Securities Market[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2020,30(6):107-124.
美国次贷危机后,宏观审慎监管成为全球共同的金融监管理念,引起各国金融监管框架和监管制度重大变化。本文研究宏观审慎监管框架下证券市场系统性风险,结合市场危机发生的案例,分析证券市场系统性风险的发生机理。基于宏观审慎监管要求,分别从宏观经济、股票市场和证券机构三个维度选取客观性指标构建指标体系,采用综合指数法测度证券市场系统性风险。研究显示,自2000年以来,我国证券市场系统性风险指数跌宕起伏,2006年以前系统性风险逐渐下降;2008年至今系统性风险呈增加趋势。实证分析表明,每次危机发生前证券市场系统性风险都会大幅增加。在测度系统性风险的基础上,本研究确定系统性风险指数预警值,运用Logit模型进行预警因素分析,检验预警值的有效性和可靠性。证券市场系统性风险预警是宏观审慎监管的重要环节和逆周期监管的实施依据,系统性风险达到或超过预警值,意味着应运用审慎监管工具进行逆周期调节,这对保持证券市场平稳发展具有重要意义。
In the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States
macro-prudential supervision has become the global common financial supervision strategy
which has caused major changes in the financial supervision framework and supervisory system of various countries. This paper studies the systemic risks in the securities market under the framework of macro-prudential supervision and analyzes the mechanism of the occurrence of systemic risks in the securities market in combination with cases of market crises. Based on the requirements of macro-prudential supervision
we construct a composite index that measures the systemic risk of the securities market including factors from the dimensions of macroeconomics
stock market and securities institutions. The results indicate that since 2000
the systemic risk index of securities market in China has constantly fluctuated. The systemic risk gradually declined before 2006
but has been increasing after 2008. Empirical results show that systemic risks in the securities market will increase substantially before each crisis. After measuring the systemic risk
this paper sets the early warning value of the systemic risk index and uses the Logit model to analyze the early warning factors to test the validity and reliability of the early warning value. The early warning of systemic risks in the securities market is an important part of macro-prudential supervision and the basis for the implementation of inverse periodic supervision. Macro-prudential supervision tools should be used to carry out counter-cyclical adjustments when systemic risks reach or exceed the warning value mean
which is of great significance to ensure the stable development of the securities market.
宏观审慎监管证券市场系统性风险指数
0
浏览量
614
下载量
16
CNKI被引量
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构