Jian ZHAO, Ruizhi CHENG. Has Economic Fluctuation in China Been Eliminated? —— Phenomenon, Mechanism and Influence[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2019,29(2):102-114.
Jian ZHAO, Ruizhi CHENG. Has Economic Fluctuation in China Been Eliminated? —— Phenomenon, Mechanism and Influence[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2019,29(2):102-114.DOI:
microscopical economic fluctuation rate had dramatically declined. However
it didn't get enough attention from theoretical cycle and policy level. Aiming at this question
this paper explains it from time-lag effect
game theory from micro-level and web theory from macro-level
combined with the reality of China's economy and finance
from aggregate supply and demand curve
economic structural adjustment and macro-control policy several aspects. We suggest that in last 10 years
especially since 2012
aging of population and investment returns fall suppress aggregate elasticity of supply
replacing old growth drivers with new ones and readjustment of the economic structure improve economic resilience
the perfection and improvement of macroeconomic regulation and control system improve policy adverse adjustment ability. These are the reasons for microscopical economic fluctuation rate declining. However
financial market fluctuations are getting worse while fluctuations in the real economy slow down. This is guard signal to macroprudential regulatory system and risk prevention battle.