南京晓庄学院 商学院,江苏 南京 211171
姜金德,南京晓庄学院商学院教授,管理学博士,主要研究方向:区域经济与区域物流;
周海花,南京晓庄学院商学院副教授,管理学博士,主要研究方向:应用统计与大数据分析。
纸质出版日期:2021-07-15,
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姜金德, 周海花. 基于区域经济指标的区域物流需求PCR预测研究[J]. 济南大学学报(社会科学版), 2021,31(4):124-132.
Jinde JIANG, Haihua ZHOU. Research on PCR Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on Regional Economic Index: Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2021,31(4):124-132.
姜金德, 周海花. 基于区域经济指标的区域物流需求PCR预测研究[J]. 济南大学学报(社会科学版), 2021,31(4):124-132. DOI:
Jinde JIANG, Haihua ZHOU. Research on PCR Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on Regional Economic Index: Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2021,31(4):124-132. DOI:
为研究区域经济与区域物流之间的相互依赖关系,建立有效的预测模型进行预测,对有关职能部门制定发展战略十分必要。基于区域经济与区域物流关系的分析,利用江苏省2005-2019年相关经济指标的面板数据,选择与区域GDP相关系数较大的货运量来表征区域物流需求的规模,基于强相关性等原则构建了影响物流需求的经济指标体系,运用SPSS统计分析软件建立基于区域经济指标的区域物流需求的主成分回归(PCR)预测模型,对模型进行检验,可决系数值表明模型的拟合优度好;通过趋势外推法(TE)建立江苏省区域经济各指标的预测模型,将预测数据代入PCR模型进行2020-2024年江苏省货运量预测,能够为区域经济和区域物流发展提供有价值的决策参考。
In order to study the interdependence between regional economy and regional logistics
establishing an effective forecasting model is necessary for relevant functional departments to formulate development strategies. Based on the analysis of the relationship between regional economy and regional logistics
using the panel data of relevant economic indicators of Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2019
the freight volume with larger correlation coefficient with regional GDP is selected to represent the scale of regional logistics demand. Based on the principle of strong correlation
the economic index system affecting logistics demand is constructed. SPSS statistical analysis software is used to establish a principal component regression (PCR) prediction model of regional logistics demand based on regional economic indicators. The model is tested and the determinable coefficient shows that the goodness of fit of the model is good. The trend extrapolation method (TE) is used to establish a prediction model for various indicators of the regional economy of Jiangsu Province
and the prediction data is substituted into the PCR model to predict the freight volume of Jiangsu Province from 2020 to 2024
which can provide a valuable decision-making reference for the development of regional economy and regional logistics.
主成分回归趋势外推区域经济物流需求预测
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