Jinde JIANG, Haihua ZHOU. Research on PCR Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on Regional Economic Index: Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2021,31(4):124-132.
Jinde JIANG, Haihua ZHOU. Research on PCR Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on Regional Economic Index: Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2021,31(4):124-132.DOI:
In order to study the interdependence between regional economy and regional logistics
establishing an effective forecasting model is necessary for relevant functional departments to formulate development strategies. Based on the analysis of the relationship between regional economy and regional logistics
using the panel data of relevant economic indicators of Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2019
the freight volume with larger correlation coefficient with regional GDP is selected to represent the scale of regional logistics demand. Based on the principle of strong correlation
the economic index system affecting logistics demand is constructed. SPSS statistical analysis software is used to establish a principal component regression (PCR) prediction model of regional logistics demand based on regional economic indicators. The model is tested and the determinable coefficient shows that the goodness of fit of the model is good. The trend extrapolation method (TE) is used to establish a prediction model for various indicators of the regional economy of Jiangsu Province
and the prediction data is substituted into the PCR model to predict the freight volume of Jiangsu Province from 2020 to 2024
which can provide a valuable decision-making reference for the development of regional economy and regional logistics.