Wei LIU, Shao-an HUANG. The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2020,30(3):114-128.
Wei LIU, Shao-an HUANG. The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries[J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition), 2020,30(3):114-128.DOI:
Enhanced by globalization of world trade and financial liberalization
the BRICS countries have not only showed a high and steady growth rate of GDP but experienced a tremendous takeoff in stock market capitalization in the last two decades. In this paper
we center on the characteristic of causal nexus among a series of related variables and stock market return contemporaneously in five BRICS countries. We examine the long-term equilibrium between stock market price and other macroeconomic variables
using Johansen’s cointegration test and investigate the short-term causality
by VECM. From the empirical results
we find a long-term relationship between stock market price and macroeconomic variables in each of the five countries. In short term
we find a complicated network of causality between all these variables
however GDP growth rate can act as regulator
which is inclined to converge to its long-run equilibrium path in response to any changes in other variables.