In the post-pandemic era

the economic recovery of various countries has diverged

and the dislocation of domestic and foreign monetary policy cycles has intensified. Emerging economies with fragile financial systems have to face the risks and uncertainties brought about by the rapid increase in the scale and volatility of cross-border capital flows. This research constructs internal and external liquidity index and employs ARIMA model to measure the volatility of cross-border capital inflows and outflows in major emerging economies from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2021. The MS-VAR model is constructed to analyze the risk transmission chain of liquidity originating from external developed economies and emerging economies and its superimposed impact on financial cycle differences and then on cross-border capital flow volatility. A number of findings emerge. First

internal and external financial cycle differences can be used as an intermediate channel for internal and external liquidity shocks to affect the volatility of cross-border capital flows. Second

the difference in stock index and credit ratio changes has significant and asymmetric effects on the volatility of cross-border capital inflow and outflow. Third

in different periods of liquidity volatility

the impact of differences in internal and external financial cycles on the volatility of cross-border capital flows is heterogeneous. The research results provide important inspiration for emerging economies to take into account the common impact of internal and external liquidity in capital flow management

strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation

and avoid systemic financial risks caused by excessive capital flow volatility.