Macro-prudential Supervision and Systemic Risk Measurement in Securities Market
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Macro-prudential Supervision and Systemic Risk Measurement in Securities Market
封面论文
JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition)Vol. 30, Issue 6, Pages: 107-124(2020)
作者机构:
1.青岛大学 经济学院,山东 青岛 266061
2.济南大学 商学院,山东 济南 250002
3.上海交易所 资本市场研究所,上海 200120
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:F832.39
Published:15 November 2020,
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Guomao SUN, Hui ZHANG, Yuncai ZHANG. Macro-prudential Supervision and Systemic Risk Measurement in Securities Market. [J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition) 30(6):107-124(2020)
DOI:
Guomao SUN, Hui ZHANG, Yuncai ZHANG. Macro-prudential Supervision and Systemic Risk Measurement in Securities Market. [J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition) 30(6):107-124(2020)DOI:
Macro-prudential Supervision and Systemic Risk Measurement in Securities Market封面论文
In the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States
macro-prudential supervision has become the global common financial supervision strategy
which has caused major changes in the financial supervision framework and supervisory system of various countries. This paper studies the systemic risks in the securities market under the framework of macro-prudential supervision and analyzes the mechanism of the occurrence of systemic risks in the securities market in combination with cases of market crises. Based on the requirements of macro-prudential supervision
we construct a composite index that measures the systemic risk of the securities market including factors from the dimensions of macroeconomics
stock market and securities institutions. The results indicate that since 2000
the systemic risk index of securities market in China has constantly fluctuated. The systemic risk gradually declined before 2006
but has been increasing after 2008. Empirical results show that systemic risks in the securities market will increase substantially before each crisis. After measuring the systemic risk
this paper sets the early warning value of the systemic risk index and uses the Logit model to analyze the early warning factors to test the validity and reliability of the early warning value. The early warning of systemic risks in the securities market is an important part of macro-prudential supervision and the basis for the implementation of inverse periodic supervision. Macro-prudential supervision tools should be used to carry out counter-cyclical adjustments when systemic risks reach or exceed the warning value mean
which is of great significance to ensure the stable development of the securities market.