The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries
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The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries
JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition)Vol. 30, Issue 3, Pages: 114-128(2020)
作者机构:
山东大学 经济研究院,山东 济南 250100
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:F831
Published:15 May 2020,
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Wei LIU, Shao-an HUANG. The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries. [J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition) 30(3):114-128(2020)
DOI:
Wei LIU, Shao-an HUANG. The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries. [J]. JOURNAL OF UNIVERSITY OF JINAN (Social Science Edition) 30(3):114-128(2020)DOI:
The Dynamic Interaction Between Stock Market Price and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from BRICS Countries
Enhanced by globalization of world trade and financial liberalization
the BRICS countries have not only showed a high and steady growth rate of GDP but experienced a tremendous takeoff in stock market capitalization in the last two decades. In this paper
we center on the characteristic of causal nexus among a series of related variables and stock market return contemporaneously in five BRICS countries. We examine the long-term equilibrium between stock market price and other macroeconomic variables
using Johansen’s cointegration test and investigate the short-term causality
by VECM. From the empirical results
we find a long-term relationship between stock market price and macroeconomic variables in each of the five countries. In short term
we find a complicated network of causality between all these variables
however GDP growth rate can act as regulator
which is inclined to converge to its long-run equilibrium path in response to any changes in other variables.